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What is Known

On page 5 of Wiles's paper, he discusses the history of the following theorem.

Theorem 2.1 (Gross, Kolyvagin, Zagier, et al.)   Suppose that

$\displaystyle L(E,s) = c(s-1)^r +$   higher order terms$\displaystyle $

with $ r\leq 1$. Then the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture is true for $ E$, that is, $ E(\mathbb{Q})\approx \mathbb{Z}^r\oplus E(\mathbb{Q})_{\tor}.$

I suspect that most elliptic curves satisfy the hypothesis of the above theorem, i.e., they have rank 0 or $ 1$. For example, almost 96% of the ``first $ 78198$'' elliptic curves have $ r\leq 1$. I suspect that the curves with $ r>1$ have ``density'' 0 amongst all elliptic curves. This doesn't mean that we are done. In practice it is often the curves with $ r>1$ that are interesting and useful, and experts can still be observed saying ``almost nothing is known about the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture''.



William A Stein 2001-12-06